Fox is the energizer of the group, with his game-changing quickness, elite twith, willingness to climb into the ball defensively, and fearless mentality attacking rim despite his slight 170-pound frame. The old he's a jump shot away' phrase has been the famous last words of several scouts and executives across the league, but in Fox's case, you could argue that he truly is a jump shot away from being a legitimate #1 candidate in this year's draft. Before diving into his fit, it's important to note that Fox isn't an Elfrid Payton, Rajon Rondo style non-shooter. His mechanics are sound (73.6 FT%) and he did knock down 1.9 threes per 40 minutes at a 32% clip in 21 games with Houston Hoops on the EYBL circuit in 2015. Like fellow Kentucky alum John Wall, Fox will eventually become a weapon from the elbows, and it's not out of the question that he follows a similar trajectory to Mike Conley, who shot sub 70% from the free throw line and only 30% from three as a freshman at Ohio State, yet is now a career 37.9% 3-point shooter.
With all that said, Fox isn't going to step into the league and make NBA threes right off the bat, and he needs to be surrounded by shooting in order to cash in on his electric pick and roll penetration (25.8% of offense, 73rd percentile).
If the Lakers were to pass on Ball, Fox could be an option as Luke Walton's club is missing a defensive identity and a level of explosiveness in the backcourt, given Russell's more methodical style of play. For Fox's sake, however, the lack of overall shooting on the Lakers' roster would really handicap him early on in his career. Severely hurting in the stretch big category, defenses would already be going under every Fox ball screen, and having a non-shooting big as a diver just muddies the paint even more. From a culture and marketability standpoint, however, LA is great for Fox's vivacious personality, and the ability to grow with a fellow young two-way player in Ingram and a coach like Walton is an enviable position for any young player.
Assuming the Celtics (who weren't enamored enough with Fultz to keep the #1 pick), have no interest in a guard, that leaves, likely, Phoenix or Sacramento. The Suns are the more interesting fit of the two, based on their current young core and ability to play with a fully spaced floor in the future, an ideal situation for the penetration-heavy, flawed-shooting Fox.
The Suns still have to figure out what to do with veterans Eric Bledsoe and Brandon Knight, both locked into long-term deals, but a lineup of Fox, Devin Booker, T.J. Warren, Marquese Chriss and Dragan Bender could be awfully potent offensively in a few years. Fox still has some work to do as a decision maker and floor general, but playing next to Booker, who can handle in pick and roll, and having a guy like Tyler Ulis around, will certainly help ease the blow. Chriss and Bender both project as stretch bigs, and T.J. Warren, although maybe not a long-term cornerstone, is a nice complementary scorer who doesn't need many dribbles to get buckets.
From a simplicity standpoint, it would make sense for Phoenix to opt for whoever is left between Josh Jackson and Jayson Tatum, as they search for a wing next to Booker, and may be reluctant to lose leverage in Eric Bledsoe's trade market, but Fox should at least get a sniff, and from a personnel perspective, the Suns would be a good fit for his game.
That leaves Sacramento, which desperately needs a lead guard of the future. The Kings have some young pieces in Skal Labissiere, Buddy Hield, Bogdan Bogdanovic, and even Malachi Richardson, all of whom can shoot the ball with range. The rest of their roster is certainly in limbo. Willie Cauley-Stein isn't a perfect pick and roll pairing with Fox given his up and down shooting, but as a vertical spacer with shooting at the two, three and four, the Kings could certainly be entertaining, and they have the 10th pick where they'll likely be able to snag one of Lauri Markkanen, Jonathan Isaac or Zach Collins (all of whom can shoot). The Kings have assets, and if they use them to surround Fox with enough shooting (and some vets who can help him come along as a point guard), he'll have enough space to play to his strengths until he can make shots with some consistency down the road.
All in all, Fox is in a solid position to land in an organization that has some current young pieces and the fluidity and assets to build around his style of play.
Comments